Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 3537 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 3537 PWM 08:01 → EWR 09:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3551 PWM 15:39 → EWR 17:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3537 Republic	PWM 08:01	EWR 09:43	5%	2%	1.9%	no record
UA 3405 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:55	EWR 12:29	10%	3%	2.1%	88%
UA 1777 United	PWM 05:59	EWR 07:30	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
YX 3551 Republic	PWM 15:39	EWR 17:37	26%	9%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON