Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3522 PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest YX 3453 PWM 14:29 → IAD 16:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 05:20	IAD 07:04	4%	2%	0.8%	95%
YX 3494 Republic	PWM 09:44	IAD 11:55	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 3582 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:16	IAD 21:14	11%	4%	1.1%	81%
YX 3453 Republic	PWM 14:29	IAD 16:41	13%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON