Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 5811 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day YX 5811 PWM 06:25 → LGA 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4515 PWM 14:50 → LGA 16:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5811 Republic	PWM 06:25	LGA 08:02	4%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:43	LGA 12:17	9%	3%	1.7%	81%
YX 5803 Republic	PWM 16:55	LGA 18:33	15%	8%	2.2%	no record
YX 5816 Republic	PWM 12:31	LGA 14:07	16%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 4515 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 14:50	LGA 16:24	17%	6%	1.9%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON