Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:38, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	PWM 11:38	MSP 13:58	8%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:20 → IAD 07:04UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 08:31 → MSP 10:10UA 2604	5h 50m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 35m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	8h 30m	99%	84%
United Details →	PWM 15:37 → DEN 18:16UA 287	2h 38m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	9h 22m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	7h 51m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:50 → DTW 14:50DL 426	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 22m	93%	77%
American Details →	PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:23AA 4499 · flown by Republic	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	8h 27m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 20:16 → MSP 21:10DL 1303	5h 18m	90%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	52m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	6h 20m	74%	63%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:15 → ATL 09:00DL 1515	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 16m	70%	62%
United Details →	PWM 17:06 → ORD 18:51UA 1828	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	5h 35m	67%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON