Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4499 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4499 PWM 06:28 → ORD 08:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:06 → ORD 18:51 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:28	ORD 08:23	8%	3%	1.0%	89%
UA 2170 United	PWM 05:53	ORD 07:37	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 3688 Republic	PWM 07:58	ORD 09:29	17%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:34	ORD 13:33	18%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:37	ORD 19:36	19%	5%	1.5%	92%worse than usual
AA 2717 American	PWM 14:01	ORD 15:50	28%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:06	ORD 18:51	34%	7%	0.8%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON