Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5302 PWM 05:19 → PHL 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5276 PWM 12:46 → PHL 14:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5302 PSA	PWM 05:19	PHL 07:06	5%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 1536 American Flight history →	PWM 07:50	PHL 09:43	9%	4%	0.7%	92%
OH 5276 PSA	PWM 12:46	PHL 14:35	13%	6%	2.4%	no record
AA 6124 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 10:56	PHL 12:40	8%	1%	0.9%	92%
AA 6125 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 18:59	PHL 20:44	19%	9%	7.4%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON