Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 13:14, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5211 PSA	RAP 13:14	CLT 18:45	21%	11%	2.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 16:15 → MSP 18:53DL 3851 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	5h 29m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819	7h 39m	98%	81%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Denver	DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231	8h 17m	97%	80%
United Details →	RAP 12:18 → DEN 13:57UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	8h 50m	98%	70%
American Details →	RAP 06:33 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 03m	97%	67%
American Details →	RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:01 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	7h 24m	99%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON