Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 5576 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 5576 RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5947 RAP 16:40 → DEN 18:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5576 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 05:00	DEN 06:37	7%	6%	0.7%	89%
UA 5742 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 12:18	DEN 13:57	12%	7%	0.7%	90%
UA 1598 United	RAP 11:15	DEN 12:45	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5671 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 17:56	DEN 19:41	14%	8%	0.8%	77%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	RAP 07:00	DEN 08:21	14%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 5884 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 09:00	DEN 10:35	17%	7%	0.7%	74%
UA 5947 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RAP 16:40	DEN 18:24	20%	9%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON