tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 11:48, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4019 Envoy RAP 11:48 PHX 13:17 15% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 6h 58m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:21UA 1767 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 25m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m Denver DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481 5h 00m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → RAP 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 5884 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 6h 12m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → RAP 12:18 → DEN 13:57UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 5h 17m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest 47m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284 5h 38m 85% 74%
AmericanDetails → RAP 06:33 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:18AA 1548 8h 45m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → PHX 17:10AA 1232 7h 52m 99% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON