tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3223 at 11:26, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3223 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → RDM 11:26 BUR 13:31 12% 5% 1.3% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 08:45 → BUR 10:09UA 2363 4h 14m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 2h 47m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 05:07 → PDX 06:08AS 2043 · flown by Horizon 51m Portland PDX 06:59 → BUR 09:17AS 1487 4h 10m 90% 81%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → BUR 19:58UA 2001 6h 09m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:17 → DEN 16:45UA 2350 2h 25m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 23m 94% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON