Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1188 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1188 United Flight history →	RDM 05:00	DEN 08:28	6%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2350 United Flight history →	RDM 13:17	DEN 16:45	17%	6%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 42m	98%	87%
United Details →	RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 08:48 → DEN 12:21UA 1469	5h 26m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	6h 46m	99%	84%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 55m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	7h 23m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 13:13 → DEN 16:43AS 639	5h 59m	98%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	4h 54m	42%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON