Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 05:30	PHX 07:57	5%	3%	1.1%	99%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 14:50	PHX 17:20	11%	5%	1.0%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	6h 56m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	2h 48m Portland	PDX 09:03 → PHX 11:39AS 1350	6h 14m	99%	85%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	2h 57m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	7h 25m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 02m	99%	78%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 18:54 → PHX 20:51UA 1375	7h 02m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	7h 01m	98%	72%
United Details →	RDM 13:17 → DEN 16:45UA 2350	2h 21m Denver	DEN 19:06 → PHX 20:01UA 1507	6h 44m	94%	72%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 09:35 → PHX 12:19AS 449	5h 04m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 11:58 → PHX 14:43AS 417	4h 59m	72%	49%
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:59 → SEA 19:01AS 276	54m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → PHX 22:53AS 632	4h 54m	52%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON