Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 4036 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 4036 RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 276 RDM 17:59 → SEA 19:02 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4036 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 06:13	SEA 07:40	5%	4%	1.2%	89%
QX 2170 Horizon	RDM 06:02	SEA 07:14	10%	3%	1.5%	no record
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 13:27	SEA 14:50	16%	7%	1.2%	89%
QX 2063 Horizon	RDM 08:02	SEA 09:17	17%	4%	1.6%	no record
DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:25	SEA 20:48	18%	9%	2.1%	89%
QX 2355 Horizon	RDM 10:24	SEA 11:38	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
OO 3435 SkyWest	RDM 18:24	SEA 19:43	20%	10%	1.7%	no record
AS 276 Alaska Flight history →	RDM 17:59	SEA 19:02	37%	10%	1.7%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON