Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 702 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 702 RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2262 RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 702 United Flight history →	RDM 05:55	SFO 07:33	4%	3%	0.8%	94%
OO 3361 SkyWest	RDM 18:18	SFO 20:01	19%	16%	1.6%	no record
UA 2262 United Flight history →	RDM 13:49	SFO 15:32	25%	12%	1.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON