Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1552 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1552 RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1669 RDU 14:12 → ATL 15:53 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1552 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:10	ATL 06:28	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:02	ATL 12:29	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1192 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:20	ATL 07:46	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1530 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:50	ATL 10:18	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2478 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:30	ATL 09:00	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:47	ATL 15:20	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	RDU 15:35	ATL 17:05	11%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:43	ATL 14:11	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	RDU 16:58	ATL 18:28	14%	5%	1.6%	83%
F9 4797 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 08:35	ATL 10:12	16%	6%	0.8%	81%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:27	ATL 19:56	19%	7%	0.9%	85%
F9 1669 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:12	ATL 15:53	19%	8%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON