Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4439 Southwest	RDU 06:49	AUS 08:59	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 07:02	AUS 09:11	11%	3%	1.1%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 17m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218	6h 26m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	7h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	8h 00m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104	7h 21m	98%	81%
United Details →	RDU 06:26 → IAH 08:31UA 1383	3h 46m Houston	IAH 12:17 → AUS 13:24UA 1859	7h 58m	99%	80%
American Details →	RDU 06:15 → CLT 07:20AA 1903	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 08:36 → AUS 10:28AA 818	5h 13m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:43 → ATL 14:11DL 2052	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	7h 07m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 06:23 → MIA 08:35AA 395	50m Miami	MIA 09:25 → AUS 11:27AA 812	6h 04m	72%	58%
American Details →	RDU 11:45 → DFW 13:45AA 2683	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:38 → AUS 15:50AA 2103	5h 05m	72%	47%
American Details →	RDU 15:03 → PHL 16:40AA 1441	59m Philadelphia	PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30AA 1314	6h 27m	67%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON