Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4808 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4808 RDU 06:21 → BNA 07:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1511 RDU 18:36 → BNA 19:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4808 Southwest	RDU 06:21	BNA 07:09	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2952 Southwest	RDU 10:46	BNA 11:39	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 07:54	BNA 08:39	7%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 4762 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:54	BNA 10:45	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 16:14	BNA 17:06	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1511 Southwest	RDU 18:36	BNA 19:24	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON