Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1054 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1054 RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2184 RDU 14:50 → BOS 16:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1054 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:00	BOS 09:02	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
B6 1484 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:00	BOS 07:59	11%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 1133 Delta	RDU 12:12	BOS 14:16	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 2084 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 11:15	BOS 13:16	18%	7%	0.7%	50%
DL 1065 Delta	RDU 17:04	BOS 19:06	22%	10%	0.7%	no record
B6 2384 JetBlue	RDU 18:06	BOS 20:06	26%	16%	0.9%	no record
B6 2184 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:50	BOS 16:48	27%	15%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON