Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1903 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 06:15 → CLT 07:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1904 RDU 19:38 → CLT 20:44 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 06:15	CLT 07:21	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
AA 1768 American	RDU 10:33	CLT 11:39	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	RDU 12:07	CLT 13:18	20%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 1753 American	RDU 08:14	CLT 09:20	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1749 American	RDU 13:59	CLT 15:04	25%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2704 American Flight history →	RDU 15:37	CLT 16:46	29%	7%	1.3%	76%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	RDU 17:47	CLT 18:55	31%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	RDU 19:38	CLT 20:44	32%	8%	1.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON