Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via JFK, leaving 05:34, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Hebron on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic	3h 51m New York	JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21AA 4609 · flown by Republic	7h 47m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → CVG 10:33DL 3160	5h 23m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149	6h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169	6h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	5h 39m	98%	85%
American Details →	RDU 06:15 → CLT 07:20AA 1903	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:08 → CVG 12:39AA 1533	6h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:43 → ATL 14:11DL 2052	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858	6h 20m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:27 → ATL 19:56DL 2600	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 12m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 07:05 → EWR 08:59DL 5120 · flown by Endeavor	46m Newark	EWR 09:45 → CVG 11:53DL 5026 · flown by Endeavor	4h 48m	74%	61%
American Details →	RDU 17:00 → DFW 19:08AA 2091	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:01 → CVG 23:32AA 1266	6h 32m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON