Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2524 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2524 RDU 06:35 → DCA 08:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4053 RDU 15:45 → DCA 17:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2524 American	RDU 06:35	DCA 08:00	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4232 Envoy	RDU 11:01	DCA 12:06	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4229 Envoy	RDU 18:41	DCA 20:05	22%	7%	1.5%	no record
MQ 4053 Envoy	RDU 15:45	DCA 17:05	24%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 5006 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:19	18%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 5198 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:47	DCA 21:20	51%	23%	8.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON