Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4095 RDU 13:31 → DEN 15:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2225 RDU 18:12 → DEN 20:07 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4095 Southwest	RDU 13:31	DEN 15:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 741 United	RDU 08:10	DEN 10:02	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2288 United Flight history →	RDU 16:22	DEN 18:25	16%	6%	0.6%	81%
F9 2225 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 18:12	DEN 20:07	16%	5%	0.9%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	58m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DEN 09:53DL 346	5h 33m	89%	75%
Delta Details →	RDU 16:58 → ATL 18:28DL 1550	57m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	5h 45m	86%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON