Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1088 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1088 RDU 06:00 → DFW 08:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2091 RDU 17:00 → DFW 19:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1088 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	DFW 08:08	11%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:37	DFW 09:50	14%	4%	1.0%	87%
F9 2343 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:36	DFW 15:45	18%	8%	1.0%	79%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	RDU 11:45	DFW 13:45	19%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	RDU 14:21	DFW 16:24	24%	9%	1.2%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	RDU 17:00	DFW 19:08	28%	11%	2.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON