Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1388 RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4937 RDU 13:31 → DTW 15:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1388 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:33	DTW 07:16	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:37	DTW 14:24	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:10	DTW 19:02	12%	5%	0.6%	83%
F9 4937 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:31	DTW 15:26	13%	6%	0.8%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON