Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1525 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1525 RDU 06:00 → EWR 07:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1844 RDU 14:52 → EWR 16:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1525 United Flight history →	RDU 06:00	EWR 07:40	7%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 1669 United	RDU 08:56	EWR 10:24	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
YX 3595 Republic	RDU 17:46	EWR 19:37	28%	8%	2.2%	no record
UA 407 United	RDU 13:53	EWR 15:27	29%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 1844 United	RDU 14:52	EWR 16:33	33%	14%	1.0%	no record
DL 5120 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:05	EWR 08:59	11%	4%	3.2%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON