Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 2625 RDU 06:20 → FLL 08:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 2925 RDU 14:00 → FLL 16:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2625 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:20	FLL 08:26	20%	5%	2.4%	89%
DL 1038 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:59	FLL 14:05	22%	6%	1.9%	81%
F9 2177 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:38	FLL 12:56	24%	9%	6.0%	70%
B6 2925 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:00	FLL 16:09	29%	13%	1.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON