tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:27, is the safest bet: 53% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3914 Southwest RDU 11:56 HOU 13:57 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509 5h 24m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 20m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → RDU 15:35 → ATL 17:05DL 2026 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 7h 16m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:00 → DFW 08:08AA 1088 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754 5h 31m 86% 69%
AmericanDetails → RDU 14:21 → DFW 16:24AA 2693 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 6h 37m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:27 → ATL 19:56DL 2600 49m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 4h 24m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON