Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1383 United Flight history →	RDU 06:26	IAH 08:31	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
F9 1741 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 17:30	IAH 19:33	19%	7%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 59m	97%	85%
American Details →	RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781	1h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 08:42 → IAH 11:20AA 840	6h 22m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 04m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:04 → MSP 16:51DL 2521	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	7h 31m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682	7h 01m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 03m	98%	81%
American Details →	RDU 06:00 → DFW 08:08AA 1088	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	RDU 13:47 → ATL 15:20DL 1488	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	7h 17m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 11:45 → DFW 13:45AA 2683	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748	5h 05m	65%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON