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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 11:58, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → RDU 11:58 IND 14:04 11% 4% 0.9% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 08:57 → IND 11:38DL 2456 5h 38m 94% 87%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781 3h 08m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 13:08AA 5240 · flown by PSA 7h 10m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 08:59 → IND 10:31DL 2952 5h 21m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 13m Dulles IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic 4h 13m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 16m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:02 → AUS 09:11DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor 1h 42m Austin AUS 10:53 → IND 14:24DL 4101 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:43 → ATL 14:11DL 2052 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979 5h 44m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 29m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:28 → ORD 19:39AA 2949 1h 07m Chicago ORD 20:46 → IND 22:58AA 4740 · flown by Republic 4h 30m 67% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON