tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2027 Delta Flight history → RDU 06:52 LAS 08:47 15% 3% 0.7% 87%
WN 3564 Southwest RDU 16:51 LAS 19:04 27% 11% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 51m Dulles IAD 09:02 → LAS 11:09UA 1323 8h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 9h 26m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:26 → IAH 08:31UA 1383 3h 24m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 47m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 43m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 7h 21m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 40m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:36 → PHX 08:09AA 2601 1h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:03 → LAS 11:31AA 2109 7h 55m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781 1h 52m Philadelphia PHL 09:29 → LAS 11:49AA 2280 8h 51m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RDU 17:20 → SAN 19:25AS 474 50m San Diego SAN 20:15 → LAS 21:43AS 2274 · flown by Horizon 7h 23m 66% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON