Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:58	LAX 21:15	13%	5%	0.5%	86%
AA 2299 American	RDU 18:05	LAX 20:33	24%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	10h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 42m	99%	87%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	2h 19m Dulles	IAD 09:30 → LAX 12:05UA 657	9h 05m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	1h 53m Boston	BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004	10h 03m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:38 → SEA 09:25DL 354	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	11h 45m	100%	85%
American Details →	RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781	3h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408	10h 48m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:37 → DTW 14:24DL 2164	3h 56m Detroit	DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852	10h 27m	100%	84%
American Details →	RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic	3h 41m New York	JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:58AA 3	11h 24m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 13:53 → JFK 15:50DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	1h 15m New York	JFK 17:05 → LAX 20:20DL 707	9h 27m	75%	56%
American Details →	RDU 15:03 → PHL 16:40AA 1441	54m Philadelphia	PHL 17:34 → LAX 20:19AA 3123	8h 16m	69%	52%
JetBlue Details →	RDU 06:20 → FLL 08:26B6 2625	49m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 09:15 → LAX 11:33B6 2801	8h 13m	67%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON