Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4466 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4466 RDU 08:01 → LGA 09:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2727 RDU 12:57 → LGA 14:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4466 Republic	RDU 08:01	LGA 09:52	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
DL 2036 Delta	RDU 08:01	LGA 09:38	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 16:00	LGA 17:47	19%	8%	2.0%	75%
DL 2017 Delta	RDU 17:14	LGA 18:53	21%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2727 American	RDU 12:57	LGA 14:37	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON