Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:00	MCI 09:42	15%	7%	2.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	97%	87%
American Details →	RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781	2h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 10:11 → MCI 12:17AA 1480	7h 19m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → MCI 10:07DL 2908	5h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:04 → MSP 16:51DL 2521	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657	7h 55m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747	6h 52m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	6h 27m	98%	81%
American Details →	RDU 06:15 → CLT 07:20AA 1903	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 08:42 → MCI 10:11AA 2946	4h 56m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:35 → ATL 17:05DL 2026	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023	7h 19m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 19:38 → CLT 20:43AA 1904	57m Charlotte	CLT 21:40 → MCI 23:04AA 1732	4h 26m	62%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON