Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3568 Southwest	RDU 08:19	MDW 09:25	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4291 Southwest	RDU 17:01	MDW 18:10	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	6h 32m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 28m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 16:58 → ATL 18:28DL 1550	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 17m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 41m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:37 → DTW 14:24DL 2164	3h 43m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 52m	100%	59%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	8h 09m	99%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON