Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 890 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 890 RDU 08:15 → MIA 10:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 3281 RDU 16:51 → MIA 19:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 890 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:15	MIA 10:26	15%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 395 American Flight history →	RDU 06:23	MIA 08:35	18%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 3122 American	RDU 08:33	MIA 10:49	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2321 American Flight history →	RDU 11:28	MIA 13:40	25%	6%	1.1%	96%worse than usual
AA 1891 American Flight history →	RDU 19:22	MIA 21:43	30%	10%	1.1%	62%
AA 3281 American	RDU 16:51	MIA 19:07	31%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON