Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1482 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 RDU 06:01 → ORD 07:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2949 RDU 18:28 → ORD 19:39 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United	RDU 06:01	ORD 07:19	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	13%	6%	0.7%	87%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:43	ORD 10:59	16%	6%	1.0%	89%
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 07:08	ORD 08:30	17%	5%	1.1%	85%
UA 2826 United	RDU 08:11	ORD 09:31	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	20%	7%	1.1%	86%
YX 4420 Republic	RDU 15:49	ORD 17:20	22%	7%	1.9%	no record
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:09	ORD 14:35	24%	5%	1.2%	no record
OO 5364 SkyWest	RDU 16:39	ORD 17:55	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 19:48	ORD 21:13	26%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2732 American	RDU 14:44	ORD 16:03	35%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 18:28	ORD 19:39	37%	9%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON