tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:02, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2070 Southwest RDU 06:41 PHX 08:38 7% 1% 0.7% no record
AA 2601 American Flight history → RDU 06:36 PHX 08:09 16% 4% 0.8% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 9h 46m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 23m Dulles IAD 08:34 → PHX 10:31UA 709 7h 31m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 7h 11m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 10:54 → PHX 13:01AA 478 10h 03m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 51m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:10 → SLC 09:42DL 580 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431 7h 51m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 56m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 28m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:27 → ATL 19:56DL 2600 54m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → PHX 21:49DL 929 6h 22m 73% 54%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:28 → ORD 19:39AA 2949 1h 12m Chicago ORD 20:51 → PHX 22:48AA 3277 7h 20m 71% 46%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:00 → DFW 19:08AA 2091 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:07 → PHX 20:44AA 3232 6h 44m 68% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON