Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4532 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 07:54	PIT 09:19	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 4440 Republic	RDU 18:34	PIT 20:13	10%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 08:52 → PIT 10:37DL 1363	5h 27m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 32m	99%	88%
American Details →	RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781	1h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 09:00 → PIT 10:36AA 5032 · flown by PSA	4h 38m	96%	87%
American Details →	RDU 12:08 → JFK 13:59AA 4765 · flown by Republic	2h 42m New York	JFK 16:41 → PIT 18:26AA 4734 · flown by Republic	6h 18m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 10:00 → JFK 11:40DL 5294 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m New York	JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic	7h 15m	97%	85%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → PIT 09:40UA 6119 · flown by Mesa	3h 40m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	6h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:43 → ATL 14:11DL 2052	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	6h 02m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 18:28 → ORD 19:39AA 2949	53m Chicago	ORD 20:32 → PIT 23:10AA 4527 · flown by Republic	4h 42m	62%	53%
American Details →	RDU 15:03 → PHL 16:40AA 1441	1h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 17:40 → PIT 19:12AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	4h 09m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON