Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 354 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:38	SEA 09:25	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 672 Alaska	RDU 19:00	SEA 21:42	28%	10%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	10h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:52 → LAS 08:47DL 2027	2h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922	10h 08m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → AUS 09:11DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor	2h 08m Austin	AUS 11:19 → SEA 13:50DL 1684	9h 50m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	10h 03m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 20m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	2h 27m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:49DL 332	10h 49m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:10 → SLC 09:42DL 580	3h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	10h 25m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	8h 01m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RDU 17:19 → SFO 19:56UA 1769	58m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SEA 23:19UA 1007	9h 00m	71%	55%
American Details →	RDU 11:45 → DFW 13:45AA 2683	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → SEA 16:47AA 727	8h 02m	67%	40%
American Details →	RDU 15:37 → CLT 16:45AA 2704	55m Charlotte	CLT 17:40 → SEA 20:25AA 751	7h 48m	66%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON