tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1604 United Flight history → RDU 06:16 SFO 09:09 13% 3% 0.6% 96%
UA 1769 United Flight history → RDU 17:19 SFO 19:56 28% 10% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 2h 36m Dulles IAD 09:47 → SFO 12:34UA 1773 9h 34m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19AA 4805 · flown by Republic 3h 53m New York JFK 11:12 → SFO 14:21AA 149 11h 47m 99% 78%
FrontierDetails → RDU 18:12 → DEN 20:07F9 2225 2h 22m Denver DEN 22:29 → SFO 00:23 +1F9 3439 9h 11m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → SFO 10:00DL 693 7h 50m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 03m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 10h 34m 98% 77%
JetBlueDetails → RDU 06:50 → JFK 08:30B6 286 2h 00m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 18m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25UA 2288 2h 45m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 9h 34m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 15:37 → CLT 16:45AA 2704 1h 03m Charlotte CLT 17:48 → SFO 20:14AA 2410 7h 37m 72% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON