tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:33, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 580 Delta Flight history → RDU 07:10 SLC 09:42 10% 2% 0.6% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25UA 2288 2h 40m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:36 → PHX 08:09AA 2601 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → SLC 13:17AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 8h 41m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 7h 04m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698 6h 48m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 13m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:23DL 464 9h 23m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 15:04 → MSP 16:51DL 2521 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607 7h 02m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:37 → DTW 14:24DL 2164 3h 16m Detroit DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765 8h 57m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON