tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1866 Southwest RDU 06:31 STL 07:55 2% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2966 Southwest RDU 11:41 STL 13:05 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 34m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 58m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → STL 09:06DL 1400 4h 56m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 15:04 → MSP 16:51DL 2521 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 7h 59m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:58 → PHL 07:37AA 2781 1h 24m Philadelphia PHL 09:01 → STL 10:37AA 1739 5h 39m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 6h 37m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 00m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:02 → ATL 12:29DL 1699 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 37m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → RDU 06:15 → CLT 07:20AA 1903 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 08:38 → STL 09:36AA 2497 4h 21m 95% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 14:21 → DFW 16:24AA 2693 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → STL 19:15AA 2487 5h 54m 73% 46%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor 5h 21m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON