Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 RDU 06:25 → TPA 08:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest MX 2466 RDU 21:48 → TPA 23:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	7%	3%	4.4%	94%
WN 4497 Southwest	RDU 09:21	TPA 11:30	10%	3%	1.4%	no record
MX 2366 Breeze	RDU 15:13	TPA 17:10	24%	7%	2.2%	no record
MX 2466 Breeze	RDU 21:48	TPA 23:37	25%	9%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON