Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1139 at 10:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1139 Southwest	RIC 10:03	BNA 11:03	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4145 Southwest	RIC 18:18	BNA 19:18	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	87%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295	5h 39m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → BNA 15:36DL 3142	5h 31m	98%	82%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	7h 29m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:00 → ATL 08:44DL 1402	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	4h 09m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:01 → DTW 18:59DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 20:59 → BNA 21:35DL 2126	5h 34m	95%	81%
United Details →	RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet	56m Dulles	IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366	4h 04m	87%	80%
United Details →	RIC 15:00 → IAD 16:05UA 4549 · flown by GoJet	1h 37m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	4h 47m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON