Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3574 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3574 Southwest	RIC 06:23	BWI 07:19	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1731 Southwest	RIC 16:14	BWI 17:15	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711	7h 07m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357	7h 28m	94%	86%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	7h 57m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	5h 47m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → BWI 17:45DL 1267	6h 40m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	RIC 13:40 → BOS 15:47DL 5622 · flown by Republic	1h 18m Boston	BOS 17:05 → BWI 19:02DL 5644 · flown by Republic	5h 22m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:01 → DTW 18:59DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest	57m Detroit	DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715	4h 35m	82%	72%
American Details →	RIC 16:30 → CLT 17:46AA 5505 · flown by PSA	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 19:59 → BWI 21:29AA 1318	4h 59m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON