Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5452 at 12:22 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 5452 RIC 12:22 → CLT 13:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1757 RIC 17:22 → CLT 18:43 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 12:22	CLT 13:46	12%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 1063 American Flight history →	RIC 06:30	CLT 07:54	13%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 1775 American	RIC 10:20	CLT 11:41	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3154 American	RIC 07:54	CLT 09:21	17%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5144 PSA	RIC 15:08	CLT 16:29	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 5505 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 16:30	CLT 17:46	22%	7%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 1909 American Flight history →	RIC 19:21	CLT 20:47	26%	5%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
AA 1757 American	RIC 17:22	CLT 18:43	32%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON