tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2493 United Flight history → RIC 08:15 DEN 10:07 15% 3% 0.7% 87%
WN 2101 Southwest RIC 13:23 DEN 15:28 19% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:36 → IAD 07:42UA 4279 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 31m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 7h 29m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:03 → MSP 07:54DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927 8h 02m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 8h 00m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 44m Chicago ORD 11:07 → DEN 12:50UA 2857 8h 50m 100% 79%
JetBlueDetails → RIC 05:49 → BOS 07:36B6 382 1h 32m Boston BOS 09:08 → DEN 11:50B6 393 8h 01m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → DEN 17:08DL 493 8h 03m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → RIC 07:27 → EWR 08:59UA 4604 · flown by GoJet 3h 19m Newark EWR 12:18 → DEN 14:23UA 2455 8h 56m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662 7h 57m 95% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 11:57 → DFW 14:06AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:57 → DEN 16:12AA 1832 6h 15m 65% 37%
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:14 → DFW 17:30AA 1915 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235 6h 27m 65% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON