Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2204 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2204 RIC 07:08 → DFW 09:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1915 RIC 15:14 → DFW 17:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2204 American Flight history →	RIC 07:08	DFW 09:27	16%	5%	1.1%	81%
AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RIC 11:57	DFW 14:06	19%	4%	1.0%	94%worse than usual
AA 1915 American Flight history →	RIC 15:14	DFW 17:30	33%	9%	1.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON