Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4096 at 17:01, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4096 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RIC 17:01	DTW 18:59	16%	7%	0.7%	73%
DL 5453 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 06:00	DTW 07:55	17%	8%	1.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 07:55 → LGA 09:20DL 5822 · flown by Republic	3h 35m New York	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	6h 56m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RIC 12:00 → LGA 13:24DL 5064 · flown by Endeavor	3h 36m New York	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	7h 39m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	6h 23m	98%	81%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	3h 27m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	7h 27m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:41 → JFK 13:09DL 5316 · flown by Endeavor	3h 41m New York	JFK 16:50 → DTW 18:47DL 2443	7h 06m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	RIC 16:25 → ATL 18:10DL 3152	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	6h 06m	96%	77%
United Details →	RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa	3h 44m	87%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON