Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1145 at 08:10, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1145 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 08:10	FLL 10:34	27%	6%	2.7%	87%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 07:55 → LGA 09:20DL 5822 · flown by Republic	1h 55m New York	LGA 11:15 → FLL 14:18DL 1181	6h 23m	99%	78%
American Details →	RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont	3h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 11:38 → FLL 14:42AA 1465	8h 16m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → ATL 07:37DL 1460	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	6h 23m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	RIC 07:00 → ATL 08:44DL 1402	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341	7h 27m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	RIC 12:00 → LGA 13:24DL 5064 · flown by Endeavor	2h 06m New York	LGA 15:30 → FLL 18:57DL 2321	6h 57m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:05 → ATL 12:47DL 2650	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	7h 35m	99%	71%
United Details →	RIC 06:50 → EWR 08:16UA 4604 · flown by GoJet	3h 40m Newark	EWR 11:56 → FLL 15:11UA 2759	8h 21m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	RIC 08:00 → ATL 09:42DL 1415	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063	5h 20m	93%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON